Saturday, January 16, 2010
They are who we thought they were!!
Hopefully we don't hear Whisenhunt saying that later today. Anyways, big surprises last week make for some interesting drama this week. I was 2-2 last week, so let's see how this goes. Saturday's games first; home teams in CAPS.
Cardinals vs. SAINTS
The best game's going to be first this week. The Cardinals participated last week in one of the best playoff games in history against the Packers, setting numerous playoff records. What they didn't do was play defense from halftime on; it was pretty atrocious from that standpoint. The Saints come in to this game rested, though with their confidence slightly shaken having lost their last 3 games.
Why the Cardinals will win: The Cardinals offense proved it could light up anyone last week by destroying one of the best defenses in the league in Green Bay. Kurt Warner picked apart the blitz and found Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, Steve Breaston, and pretty much anyone he wanted to all day long. They also managed to run the ball extremely well with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, setting up the play action pass. Warner proved again that with game planning and just a little time in the pocket that he is still one of the premier passing QB's in the league. He had more TD's (5) than incompletions (4). Read that again. He had more TD's than incompletions. Just amazing. The Cards defense has to be embarrassed with last week's showing and you have to imagine they'll be extremely fired up to prove themselves against another tough opponent. Although they will have to go on the road and play the Saints in the Superdome, they go there with a 6-2 road record this season; one of the best in the NFL. The Saints come into this game having had the last two weeks off essentially, with their starters not playing in week 17. The truth of it is though they haven't been the same since they lost to the Cowboys in week 15 and don't look like the team that went 13-0. Drew Brees wasn't afforded a lot of time in those losses and the Cardinals will go after him like they did Aaron Rodgers early on and will try to keep him off balance. Warner should pick apart their defense even more easily than he did Green Bay's last week. The cornerstone of the Saints defensive unit, S Darren Sharper is going to be forced to reckon with all of the 3-wide sets the Cardinals will throw at him, and is a step too slow to be effective in coverage anymore.
Why the Saints will win: The Saints want to prove that the last 3 weeks of the season were a fluke and lost those games mostly due to injuries. They won 13 games and most of them very convincingly through week 14. They dismantled some of the best defenses in the league, and after watching the Cardinals defense last week, have to be licking their chops. No team has more offensive weapons with names like Bush, Bell, Brees, Colston, Shockey, and Meachem. They have the ability to light up any team on any given day, much less a team that gave up 45 points of offense in the week prior. Their defense is healthy again and they believe they have enough talent to stop a high powered offense, even that of the caliber of the Cardinals. In addition the Cardinals will likely again be without the services of WR Anquan Boldin, leaving one less WR for the Saints to worry about. The Cardinals defense appeared to be...well...didn't appear at all last week until OT. Aaron Rodgers, a capable QB, had all day in the pocket in the 2nd half and found WR's that weren't just open, but WIDE open. He abused all of the Cardinals CB's, in particular Michael Adams, whom he targeted again, and again, and again. Brees can't wait to see some of the same openings down the field when his speedster WR's get loose. The Cardinals also have to be concerned about their kicking game. With a chance for a 34 yard FG to win the game in the 4th, Neil Rackers steps up and...completely shanks the ball wide left. It was a chip shot with the game on the line and he blew it. The Cardinals have to be extremely concerned if they get into a similar situation this week.
Pick: Everyone knows what's coming here. This is going to be another shootout as the Saints have an even more potent offense than Green Bay did. I still have the Cards winning this one though in the Superdome based on their superior road record and their momentum after an emotional win.
Ravens vs. COLTS
This should be a great AFC match-up between two teams that run two very different offenses. The Colts rely completely on Peyton Manning, while after last week you may not even remember the Ravens have a QB since they could literally have had anyone back there handing the ball off to Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, or Le'Ron McClain.
Why the Ravens will win: The Ravens will be brimming with confidence after their win last week in New England. As mentioned, Ravens QB Joe Flacco didn't have to do much last week to win, and that suits both him and Coach John Harbaugh just fine. The Ravens have the best running attack in the playoffs right now. Period. With their three-headed monster of Rice, McGahee, and McClain they ran all over the Patriots last week, jumping on them quickly with a 24-0 1st quarter run. They will take advantage of a Colts team whose starters will likely have some rust after not being on the field for the last two and a half weeks. They will look to punish the Colts early and often pounding the ball up the gut of the Indy defense. This will eliminate the Colts pass-rushing threat of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis as they won't be able to pin their ears back and lay out Joe Flacco. When Joe does make the rare pass, he should have plenty of time with the Colts defense off balance, and should get some openings with 8 men in the box all day. The Colts, like the Saints, do not have momentum going into this game. The Ravens D will look to eliminate Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark as they did in the regular season meeting, which will force Peyton Manning to throw to youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, who will be seeing their first postseason action.
Why the Colts will win: Truthfully, this can be boiled down to two words; Peyton Manning. I could honestly write nothing else and be correct in that assessment, but what kind of blogger would I be? The 4-time NFL MVP isn't affected by pressure or rust. He has won on the biggest stages time and time again. It really doesn't matter if it's Reggie Wayne or me running routes, he'll find a way to win the game. As always, the Colts run game will put up enough yards to keep the Ravens honest, but the Colts will win this game on the pass and on the arm of Peyton Manning. The Ravens stopped formidable passing team in New England last week, but will find the Colts are even more dangerous. Their pass rushers Freeney and Mathis are anxious to prove that being held without a sack in the regular season match-up was a fluke and will have a bulls-eye on Joe Flacco's back, looking to rattle him early. If the Colts can stop the run, admittedly no easy task, they will win this game. Flacco doesn't have any stud WR's to throw to, and will be forced into bad decisions with Freeney and Mathis coming fast play after play.
Pick: I proved to be dead wrong about the Ravens last week, but I'm betting they can't do it twice. I see the Colts D stepping up to at least stop the run enough to force Flacco to throw into coverage and make some mistakes. The Colts get the win on the arm of Peyton Manning.
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