Saturday, January 9, 2010

You play to win the game!

Since a video clip started the last one so well....



Anyone not playing to win this weekend goes home and gets 6 months to think about it. Saturday's games are in the books, lets see what Sunday has to offer. Home teams in CAPS.


Ravens vs. PATRIOTS

This is the only game of the 4 this weekend that is not a Week 17 re-match, so some fresh faces to look at in this one. Injuries are the story of this game, as key contributors will be at the least limited, if not missing altogether in this match-up.

Why the Ravens will win:
While Joe Flacco is no longer a rookie and has proven he has a big-time arm, he is only expected to be an effective game manager and to avoid costly turnovers while delivering the occasional big play. The Ravens come into this game running the ball better than anyone in the league right now. With the two-headed monster of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, once again this is a Baltimore team that will live and die with the run. The Baltimore defense, though long in the tooth, is still considered a top echelon squad. Nothing less is expected of big names like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Samari Rolle, Terrell Suggs, and the rookie Haloti Ngata. Lewis, Suggs, Ngata, and the rest of the front 7 will do their best to make sure they keep Brady on his back while stuffing the run while Reed and Rolle wreak havoc in the secondary. The Patriots do not come into this game incredibly strong. They are now missing their top pass-catcher in Wes Welker who will be replaced by the young Julian Edelman. While Edelman has proven an effective pass-catcher, he doesn't have the IQ of Welker and will not pick up the blitz or read the hot routes as well. This will allow the Ravens to focus on Randy Moss and force Tom Brady to throw into coverage. The Patriots defense is not as strong as in years passed, and has been known to give up big yardage games to premier RB's like Rice.

Why the Patriots will win: The Patriots have been here and done this more times than I care to count. As one of the most dominant teams in our era, it seems almost unheard of that they could lose a wild card match-up. In fact they haven't lost in this round since 1999. They are 8-0 at home this year and 5-0 all time against the Ravens. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and can light up anyone when given the opportunity. While he is without Wes Welker, the Patriots will plug in Welker clone Julian Edelman to fill the same role. He has proven more than serviceable in Welker's previous absences. Even with Welker's loss, Brady is still supported with veterans like Randy Moss, Kevin Faulk, and Ben Watson, who all seem to catch the ball in critical moments.
While the Ravens have always played the Patriots tough, their defense will be missing a few pieces. Baltimore could potentially be without pro-bowler Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed will likely be limited with an array of injuries. Once Brady begins to click with Edelman and they start to put up Welker-like stats, the Ravens will be forced to adjust, and the venerable Randy Moss will find openings. The Ravens don't have much in the way of a passing game, so the Patriots will stack it up in the box to stop Ray Rice and will try to force Flacco to throw it downfield to an array of has-been and never-will-be WR's. There's a reason they all went undrafted in fantasy leagues around the country.

Pick: Admittedly, this is a tough pick. I have to believe though that the Patriots still appear to have just enough firepower to beat out the Ravens in a hard-fought game.


Packers vs. CARDINALS

Saving the best for last, naturally. Be forewarned, for obvious reasons my review of this game will be more detailed, but I'll try not to get too carried away and will remain somewhat objective. The Packers met the Cardinals last week in a game that was meaningless to Arizona once the Vikings won their early game. Warner and most of the starters only played a couple of series' in order to keep them fresh for this game and they let the Packers run away with it. Though the move to rest the starters last week may have helped, a few didn't rest early enough for the Cards, with injuries to Anquan Boldin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Antrel Rolle, and Calais Campbell. All but Boldin, however, are expected to play, with 'Q' being a gametime decision.

Why the Packers will win: The Packers come into this game hotter than any other team in the playoffs, winning 7 of their last 8 games. Aaron Rodgers is headed to the Pro-Bowl and leads his high-flying team into Arizona. He has truly come into his own this year with a more pass-oriented offensive attack, and the Packers have all of their weapons at hand going into this match-up. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are one of the best WR tandems in the league and are supplemented by the emergence of Jermichael Finley at TE. They will battle against a beat-up Cardinal secondary with Antrel Rolle and DRC both gimping into this game. Rodgers will look to attack early and often, and has the steady Ryan Grant to rumble down the field to continue their obliteration of the Cardinals that began last week. The Cardinals came into last week's match-up seemingly completely unprepared, and now have to deal with the mental hangover of a convincing 33-7 loss. Their efforts to rest their starters failed with injuries to several key players, not to mention stud WR Anquan Boldin. The Green Bay defense kept the Cardinals at bay until a score in garbage time when the win was beyond doubt. Packers CB Charles Woodson is having the season of a lifetime, and will cover Larry Fitzgerald yet again. If Boldin doesn't suit up, he'll even have safety help over the top at all times, forcing Warner to rely on the run game and backup WR's Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. If forced to rely on the run game, fumbles have to be a concern for the Cardinals as both RB's Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells have put the ball on the ground numerous times this season.

Why the Cardinals will win: The Cardinals come into the playoffs this year even stronger than they did last year and are still being doubted by the national media. Warner and the Cards have won 3 of the last 5, with one of those being the meaningless game played in week 17. The Cardinals rested their starters after already knowing their playoff opponent would be the Packers and reserved their creative game-planning for this contest. Warner and Fitzgerald come into this game rested and prepared to recreate their 2009 postseason magic when Fitzgerald had the best performance of any WR in the history of the NFL. While all the injuries seem to be minor, playmaker Anquan Boldin will be a game-time decision. Even if Boldin doesn't play, the Cardinals have Steve Breaston waiting in the wings with experience subbing in as he has filled that role on numerous occasions, including last year's playoffs. Having one of the most prolific passers in NFL history on their side helps as well, as Warner owns numerous playoff passing records obtained both here and in St. Louis. He knows how to perform at his best with the ultimate prize on the line. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be forced to throw the ball in the direction of either DRC, Antrel Rolle, Bryant McFadden, or All-Pro Adrian Wilson. All four are ball-hawkers and will look for their opportunities to sneak underneath a route and pick him off as he plays in his first playoff game. When the Cardinals win the turnover battle and intercept opposing QB's, they win the game, period. If the game comes down to a Packer FG, Mason Crosby has been shaky at best, and only still has his job likely due to the lack of kicking talent available this late in the season. Charles Woodson and the Packers D will be over-matched with the number of passing options Warner has. If the Packers bring the blitz, there are few QB's better at recognizing it and taking advantage of the weaknesses down the field.

Pick: In all honesty I have concerns. The Cardinals do come into this a little banged up, and didn't exactly put on an inspiring performance last week. So far the record of teams who had bad week 17's and faced the same opponent: 0-2. Granted, circumstances are different, but mentally we'll have to play like week 17 didn't exist. We've been disrespected yet again all year, and will use that as ammunition to make another post-season run. I have the Cardinals winning this one in a shootout, 35-30.





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